# CCW Risk Analysis



## paperboy (Oct 19, 2014)

I am not a firearms expert, but I am as familiar with guns as any amatuer. I have a CCW as well. I have searched the web but I have been unable to find a tool that can assess the risk of an accidental discharge of a firearm during conceal carry that an amatuer can use for self-evalution. Sure there are statistics about the numbers of accidental discharges, but they do not help an amatuer or his instructor to assess himself. I am retired from healthcare, but my prior responsibilites were to perform high risk medical procedures. We would evaluate the risk of any procedure using a failure modes effects anaysis (FMEA). The analysis can reveal the greatest risk during any process and possibly suggest a way to reduce the risk. Below is my attempt to describe a FMEA based on the risk of a CCW accidental discharge. I think that a good CC instructor (or any firearm instructor) could use a tool such as this to help their students to determine the safest method and weapon for them to carry. I am intersted in comments about what I might have missed or even if such a tool as this would be of any value to the instructor or rank amatuer CCW student.

Failure: Accidental discharge of a conceal carry pistol

Consequences of the failure:
1) Harmless discharge
2) Discharge that damages property
3) Discharge that wounds a person (self or otherwise)
4) Discharge that kills a person (self or otherwise).

Cause of the failure:
1)	Lack of firearms training
2)	Improper pistol selected for carry
3)	Improper securing of pistol while carrying
4)	Improper holstering (no trigger coverage)

Pre-emptive management to prevent accidental discharge: safest to least safe
1)	Unchambered round
2)	Chambered round
Holstered
1)	Shoulder holster (trigger protected by holster as well as chest wall and arm)
2)	IWB or OWB holster
3)	Pocket holster (coat or pants)
4)	Purse holster
Unholstered
1)	Mexican style (IWB)
2)	In a pocket (coat or pants)
3)	In a purse (repeated entry into a purse containing an unholstered gun greatly increases risk of trigger snag)

Management after accidental discharge:
1)	Unload weapon immediately
2)	Call police
3)	Call ambulance
4)	Call coroner
5)	Call lawyer

Risk priority number (RPN): 1 is lowest risk, 5 is highest risk

Severity Rating Scale: how harmful the failure can be? While it is possible that an accidental discharge could be harmless, the assumption must be made that it will be lethal. Therefor the severity rating for an accidental discharge will always be a 5/5.

Occurrence Rating Scale: how frequently does the failure occur? The answer is; it depends. For example if an untrained person (person #1) carries an unholstered pistol, cocked with a round in the chamber, no safety on and no firing pin drop block, the chances of an accidental discharge occurring are high; say 4/5. However a well-trained person (person #2) carrying a holstered pistol, uncocked with no chambered round, would probably have an occurrence rate of 2/5. A person carrying a completely unloaded pistol (no rounds in the gun anywhere) would have an occurrence of 1/5. Why wouldn’t it be 0/5? After all, an unloaded gun cannot discharge. But all guns should be handled as if they are loaded. Even person #2 could make a mistake.

Detection Rating Scale: how easily can the potential failure can be detected before it occurs? Using the above examples, the detection rating for person #1 would be a 5, very poor. This is because he does not have the training to know that his method of carry is poor and his choice of pistol is poor. So the risk of a discharge is very high. The detection rating for person #2 would be 1, very good because he is well trained and knows the risks and avoids them and uses a safe pistol.

The least risk would be 1X1X1 = 1. The highest risk would be 5X5X5 = 125. Person #1 has a risk of 5X4X5 = 100/125. Person #2 has a risk of 10/125. So person #2 is still at risk for accidental discharge. But the risk for person #1 is ten times greater.

Each person carrying a CCW can evaluate their own risk based on an FMEA assessment. But FMEA’s work better when a group of experts arrive at a consensus. For example how would a Glock 35 with a chambered round be rated for an accidental discharge? Some people might rate it a 5X1X1 = 5/125. (I would never rate a pistol with a chambered round with a 1 in any category). Others might rate it as 5X2X2 = 20/125. Still others might rate it as 5X2X1 = 10/125. The consensus for the safety of the Glock would be an average of those numbers: (20+5+10)/3 = 11.7, for an average risk of 11.7/125. A Ruger LCP with a chambered round might have an average safety rating by consensus of 14/125, perhaps because it has no tactile loaded chamber indicator. And a Colt 1911 might have a rating of 15/125 because it might be considered too big and awkward for CC by some. So based on the consensus the Glock would be the safest and the Colt would be least safe. BUT, what is the safety rating of the person carrying? An untrained person carrying the Glock would be much less safe than a well-trained person carrying the Colt. So theoretically anyone with a CCW should perform a safety rating on themselves, their carry methods and their weapons to determine if they can reduce their risk of an accidental discharge by getting more training, changing their carry method or changing guns.

To summarize, a forum like this could provide a consensus on various aspects of CCW safety. And instructors could use a FMEA similar to this to evaluate how safe their own students were based on their training, method of carry and choice of fire arm as partof an FMEA.


----------



## Goldwing (Nov 5, 2014)

Just use your brain. I could only bear to read one fourth of your post before my eyes started to glaze over.

Welcome to the forum.

GW


----------



## TAPnRACK (Jan 30, 2013)

I have a migraine now... thanks & welcome to the forum!

Most NEGLIGENT discharges are not reported and most probably wouldn't admit to it. To track something like this for risk analysis is like trying to figure out how likely you are to be involved in a car accident. Most negligent discharges are caused by negligence, not other factors and would seem improbable to predict.

My advice is to follow the safety rules, have them engrained in your brain and use common sense. That's what I tell my students.

No charts or formulations needed.


----------



## GCBHM (Mar 24, 2014)

WOW! I can certainly appreciate your analysis here, but I do believe it is nowhere near that complicated. You do hight light a lot of good practices. First, get training. Secondly, abide by the training. Lastly, live long and prostper. It's really that simple. 

The one thing that I would teach anyone, and do when asked, who wishes to carry a firearm is this. The gun is the tool. Your brain is the weapon. The best fight is the one you can avoid, so become an expert at that first. Stay away from trouble, but train with your gun. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. You do that, and you'll be alright.


----------



## RiverDog (Dec 7, 2010)

One word my friend...Insurance.

The best I have found and own is though the NRA plan: Second Call Defense | Complete Legal Protection For Armed Self Defense


----------



## RK3369 (Aug 12, 2013)

Well, welcome to the forum. It appears that you're trying to write down how to safely handle your weapon when what you're really doing is trying to scientifically reinforce your position of innocence in the legal system when you accidentally discharge the weapon. I have known many people in various disciplines who were considered "experts" or "professionals". A lot of the time they are terrible teachers because what they do comes instinctively to them. Instincts are what you need to develop. Obviously you need basic training in safe gun handling and operation but beyond that, to remain safe, your procedure needs to be instinctive, and that requires practice. You can read books all day on the proper technique for safe gun handling, but unless you practice doing it, you'll be no better than Barney Fife when he pulls the one bullet out of his shirt pocket and loads his gun, only to shoot it into the floor when he reholsters it. Sorry, but imo, you're making the entire evaluation of safe gun handling too complicated. Unless of course you're trying to build yourself a legal defense argument for having accidentally shot someone.


----------



## GCBHM (Mar 24, 2014)

RiverDog said:


> One word my friend...Insurance.
> 
> The best I have found and own is though the NRA plan: Second Call Defense | Complete Legal Protection For Armed Self Defense


I don't think insurance it going to help you if you accidentally shoot someone. It may pay toward a civil judgment, but chances are good that if you do shoot somone by accident, you are going to jail. I posted an article on this very subject not long ago.


----------



## HARTLOCK (Aug 11, 2011)

Paperboy, one thing you dont wanta do, and thats over-think this! Geez, dude!


----------



## SouthernBoy (Jun 27, 2007)

I would offer the suggestion that if one* is worried about carrying a defensive sidearm, one should consider one of two paths to follow. Choose another arm or don't carry.

If one is diligent and careful, one should never have an inappropriate incident. And BTW, welcome aboard... we're pleased to have you with us.


* Have to say that I am not a fan of the use of "one" when writing posts such as this. I much prefer another person for the subject.


----------



## Steve M1911A1 (Feb 6, 2008)

SouthernBoy said:


> ...Have to say that I am not a fan of the use of "one" when writing posts such as this. I much prefer another person for the subject.


"One" is a whole lot better than "he/she" or "he or she."

While "he" is the substitute pronoun of ancient tradition, we are in the middle of a move away from its use.
Therefore the growing use of "one."

Would you prefer Varda One's "ve"?


----------



## Steve M1911A1 (Feb 6, 2008)

*paperboy*;
In truth, your careful analysis is unnecessary. It really is more a distraction than an aid.
Trying to predict the level of danger in each carry method, and in various gun-handling techniques, is meaningless anyway: Real life never correlates to the predictions.

Instead of trying to predict what will happen using a scalar system, experience has taught us that accident (_i.e._, negligent discharge) prevention is considerably simpler.
Precept #1 - Always make sure that your brain is fully engaged in the matter at hand, and that you allow no distractions.
Precept #2 - Always think carefully about what you are about to do, and do not "run on automatic pilot."
Precept #3 - Always do things that are safety-related in a consistent and predictable manner.
Precept #4 - Train yourself in the three (or four) basic gun-safety rules, and always follow their dicta.

Follow those precepts, and even a fully-loaded, pocket carry pistol can be safe and accident-free.
I've been doing it for years. So has my wife.
(If I have any influence at all, I will not allow purse carry.)


----------



## RK3369 (Aug 12, 2013)

Steve M1911A1 said:


> *paperboy*;
> ......... Real life never correlates to the predictions..............


as well we know from currently looking at the validity of Obama's claims regarding how the Affordable Care act was going to reduce everyone's costs by at least $2500 a year. I'm still waiting for my rebate check. I stand by the mailbox every day but no letter from the man..........I'm depressed that a high level public official supported by so many statisticians and fact finders couldn't predict things more accurately than that.


----------



## SouthernBoy (Jun 27, 2007)

Steve M1911A1 said:


> "One" is a whole lot better than "he/she" or "he or she."
> 
> While "he" is the substitute pronoun of ancient tradition, we are in the middle of a move away from its use.
> Therefore the growing use of "one."
> ...


I agree with the he/she thing and absolutely refuse to use that. In fact, I refused to put that in a technical document in which I had written about 130 pages for the use of software I had written and implemented. I flat would not do it and decided instead to use the word "user" in its place.

As for the use of the pronoun "he", this is classic English and totally proper and I do use it since this is how I was taught in grade school. When the sex of the subject is unknown, the masculine gender is used. I still abide by that and had done so in the above mentioned document to the chagrin of one of the reviewers, hence the argument about he/she and my decision to go with "user".


----------

